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Brexit: The Great Tory Tear up and Why Britain is Better Bumbling Along.

The polling cards have been delivered and the debate is at large for the referendum on the United Kingdom remaining or leaving the European Union on the 23rd June 2016.

The arguments from the Leave campaign advocate taking back control of UK Borders on immigration concerns and re-ascertaining sovereignty for parliamentary law making from the Brussels based bureaucracy. The Remain camp counter argues on the uncertainties of renegotiating trade deals with other nations when no-longer an influential voice with the EU trading block and the possibility of a UK recession if EU single-market access is restricted.

Even politicians such as US President Obama made comment on his preference for the UK to remain within the EU, a most unusual intervention indeed.

Notably, similar to the Scottish referendum of 2014, politicians from various parties of the political spectrum share a platform and a viewpoint otherwise unimaginable beforehand such as former London mayor and now Conservative MP Boris Johnston and socialist Radical Respect Party politician George Galloway campaigning for Brexit. Contrastingly, Prime Minister David Cameron stands alongside Scotland’s SNP First Minster Nicola Sturgeon and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for the Remain campaign.

Although Corbyn has been accused of being a bit lacklustre on the remain campaign prompting Labour heavyweights, like former PM Gordon Brown, to be brought in to bolster the Labour vote considered necessary to keep the Remain campaign’s nose in front as recent opinion polls have suggested a closing of the gap in the Leave campaign’s favour.

This has caused nervousness with investors and UK financial markets have sold off across assets classes with spreads on credit defaults swaps widening on UK bonds and equities being skittish with London property cooling-off.

Will the cross party UK protagonists on the 24th June be able to return to post-referendum politics, Conservative against Labour or alternatively is a new division being drawn in the UK political scene?

In Scotland the political divide is unionist versus nationalist from a UK perspective. This was one of the main platforms Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives built her credible success in last month’s Holyrood elections (see the May 2016 blog). The UK may very well turn unionist versus nationalist or isolationist from an EU perspective.

Although there’s support for both arguments in all parts of the UK a post-Brexit UK would have an English nationalist flavour. It’s food for thought for pro-UK supporters.

Without doubt the Conservatives still have the knack of tearing themselves apart over the European issue and this time is no different. While any Labour resurgence is not yet in the making there’s nothing like this Brexit debate to trigger the process unless somehow a great healing and hand holding takes place from the 24th June. This may have been the wish at the start of the Brexit debate but it’s increasingly looking harder to achieve as the referendum date approaches.

After 309 years of union, firstly as a global empire built on trade and naval capabilities, the UK still remains the world’s 5th largest economy by measure of GDP. The UK is everything the EU would like to be politically- it’s both monetary and fiscally integrated, with a common defence and foreign policy with integrated taxation for all its constituent parts and a functioning economy. It has many elected officials and different legal systems yet it bumbles along and works adequately enough for Scots in the referendum in 2014 to vote to stick with it.

Will the entire UK with its huge English majority vote to do the same with the EU?

Different members and rules admittedly but it’s better to argue the case for EU improvement rather than to leave it and renegotiate with allies who preferred the previous status quo and foes who may prefer a more isolated UK. Perfection will never be reached but bumbling along together is something the UK does with aplomb and its influence will remain and co-operation sought.

British people are concerned with levels of immigration but have always embraced the variety and spice of life that comes with it (although not without some tensions).

However, a better functioning fully staffed Border Force agency would help immigration matters hugely with clear policy decisions to enforce provided by the Home Office as that would provide a sense of security amongst voters who have immigration high on their list of political concerns-here’s hoping Home Secretary Theresa May addresses that rather than a leadership challenge.

I estimated 57:43% remain vote in February I now trim that to a 55:45% remain vote. Look familiar? Close enough to claim victory for both sides unfortunately.

LDC.

UPDATE: 20 June 2016
Will emotions over the death of the Labour MP Jo Cox play a part in the outcome of the Brexit referendum- by bringing out the reticent undecided voter in favour of the remain campaign? She was a Remain campaigner which may be the mentally deluded reason the extremist loner who killed her had as his motivation as he expressed his Britain first comments whatever that may mean. The Leave campaign’s immigrant Breaking Point poster unveiled by UKIP’s Nigel Farage has done them no favours either as it seems insensitive towards the Syrian refugees shown. The outcome is going to be close but events such as this can sway the result on emotional grounds.

LDC

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  1. Voice of Wandsworth #

    Good analysis and hard not to argue with your conclusion – I feel 47 : 53 “in” about right. DC gone by Christmas though, hope he takes Osborne with him…

    …of course we wouldn’t have had any of this crap if we had only had our vote on the Lisbon treaty…

    June 17, 2016

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