Early autumn 2018 has seen equity markets stumble especially those stellar performing ‘tech’ stocks including the FAANGs (September 2018 blog) giving back some of their gains. The bull market long touted about its demise has now suffered the consequences of rising fear factors which have concerned international investors. Rising US interest rates, margins peaking due to wages rises and inflationary costs such as rising oil prices and the tailing of the quantitative easing programmes from the US Federal Reserve and the ECB all have added to investors’ woes. Read more
Barcelona was battered, bruised and reeling from a weekend of civil unrest after an emotionally charged independence referendum for Catalonia, unsanctioned by the Madrid-based Spanish government, ensued into what appears as extremely heavy-handed treatment by riot police towards voters at polling stations. Read more
While Brexit negotiations trundle along economic warnings are building up. Former Labour Chancellor during the financial crisis of 10 years ago Lord Darling and former deputy BoE governor Charlie Bean have both recently shared concerns over debt remaining high since the 2008 crisis and an economic slowdown in the UK economy continuing into 2018. The latest construction purchasing managers’ index survey recorded a fall in activity from June-July 2017 and a reduction in new business since August 2016. Read more
This is the message I give to Davos man or woman for the 2017 January meeting of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, unless you want to go skiing of course. Picking a theme like inequality or climate change is all well and good. Read more
I’m looking forward to seeing the back of 2016.
However it’s not particularly as an investor that I’ll be glad to see the start of 2017 but as a voter. I have voted 5 times since 2014 in elections for EU, UK and Scottish parliaments, 1 Scottish referendum and in June 2016 the Brexit referendum. It has been the latter that has seemed to matter the most and it has caused all the political upset although markets have been benign about the result so far except with currency markets against Sterling. Unfortunately that does matter as prices are rising and inflation will creep back in to the UK RPI figures as 2017 progresses.
Before the UK’s referendum on leaving the EU in June 2016 plenty of world politicians advised the British to remain most prominently was the current US President Barack Obama warning the UK would be, “at the back of the queue,” in any future trade negotiations with the US if it choose to leave.
A Datastream chart of the month showing, “bumper UK retail sales in July as consumers shrugged off Brexit gloom,” was sent to me as a client of Cazenove Captial, a well known UK investment manager. Read more
Harvest thanksgiving services in many rural parish churches were for centuries well attended events in the church calendar which celebrated the harvest had been successfully gathered in for another year and the prospect of famine and poverty avoided.
The performance of the FTSE 100 share index appears to be fine so far after the UK’s Brexit vote, to paraphrase Mungo Jerry’s 1970 hit ,” In the summertime,” before the UK joined the EU, with global investors seeing US and other major indices rise too.
The cliches maybe old and tired but they usually contain an element of truth this time on what happens now in UK politics – it’s anyone’s game, all is possible, the cat is out of the bag and who knows what tomorrow brings or the worst possible outcome of all would be cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war as Europe has often witnessed, and recently too with Bosnia in 1990’s and Ukraine now although on the EU periphery it’s geographically part of Europe.