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Posts from the ‘The Stock Market’ Category

2016: Goodbye to All That Nonsense and Hello to 2017

I’m looking forward to seeing the back of 2016.

However it’s not particularly as an investor that I’ll be glad to see the start of 2017 but as a voter. I have voted 5 times since 2014 in elections for EU, UK and Scottish parliaments, 1 Scottish referendum and in June 2016 the Brexit referendum. It has been the latter that has seemed to matter the most and it has caused all the political upset although markets have been benign about the result so far except with currency markets against Sterling. Unfortunately that does matter as prices are rising and inflation will creep back in to the UK RPI figures as 2017 progresses.

Come November 2016 the US election produced Brexit plus plus. When “The Donald” triumphed over the establishment front runner Hilary Clinton, world experienced Secretary of State and former First Lady of the USA-how could she possibly lose against Trump. Well loose she did and just like Brexit in the UK. Every café latte sipping, yoga loving, right thinking metropolitan immigration loving elite from billionaire to university boffin had yet another freak-out about how those who don’t know better than us could possibly vote like that (yes, I’m including myself in that list of irked how dare they vote like that types- to my credit I saw the anti-democratic bias early if I may defend myself).

Well as writer H.L Mencken said,” Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

Those who voted for Trump will find their wall across the Mexican border isn’t going to get built after all and those steel and coal jobs aren’t coming back either. However I do think some infrastructure will get built and not before time- let’s hope his administration can raise the money if not the taxes to pay for it all. It’s going to be interesting. How about those Japanese car manufacturers in areas of the UK that voted for Brexit- will they stay put come the eventual day? The UK chancellor hopes so and has made some supportive noises to them and to lots of financial companies in the City of London too- again we’ll see in time although I have my doubts.

In Europe the slide towards nationalism and nativism continues with Italy refusing to face up to economic reform after its referendum and Marie Le Pen of the French National Front having a decent chance of becoming President. Even Angela Merkel is having a harder time and will face questions for coming elections over her immigration stance after the Berlin attacks in December.

The answer isn’t 2nd referendums or election recounts and most certainly not terrorist attacks either but engaging in the democratic process more than just voting at elections. It’s time for some democratic deliberation or even some form of sortition to get people active and engaged. People power does not come from voter apathy or partisan grid-locked politicians but from people seeking to make changes themselves.

So for both investors and voters the lesson from 2016 is that eventually, politics do matter, and as a society if you don’t deal with your problems or find a compromise, eventually, you can become a state like Syria or Libya as tragic as a civilised state can get. It was called the Dark Ages the last time.

There are of course opportunities and reasons to be cheerful – some pundits are tipping banks for 2017. I’m holding mainly and adding to beaten up Engineers who should in time and with some decent management make a comeback along with some inflation and a weak currency plus a predator or two- E2V Technologies another example has been gobbled up this month.

I wish all a Happy Christmas and a Happy New Year for 2017.

LDC.

Reference:
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/h/hlmencke163179.html

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In the summertime when the FTSE 100 is fine, it can stretch right up and touch the sky…

The performance of the FTSE 100 share index appears to be fine so far after the UK’s Brexit vote, to paraphrase Mungo Jerry’s 1970 hit ,” In the summertime,” before the UK joined the EU, with global investors seeing US and other major indices rise too.
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Floods, Brexit and Migration with Weak Economic Growth and Tumbling Markets Makes 2016 A Tough Year Already.

There may have been a brief stock market rally late in 2015 and any expressed wishes for its continuance have been dashed as 2016 so far has been a tough one for many people and not just investors. Here in the UK floods have battered the country especially in Yorkshire, Cumbria and Scotland.
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2016: What’s Coming – the Good, the Bad or Mediocrity.

Another year starting so what’s in store for investors and markets?

In 2015 the GDP of the US economy grew at 2.4%, the UK did 2.5% and the EU managed 1.5% with all its currency and migrant upheavals (GS, 2015). China slowed down yet still reported 6.9% causing investors or speculators a heap of disappointment or margin call troubles depending on what figures one believes. India performed better at 7.4% and seems to have the confidence of pundits for an improvement in 2016 to 7.8% (GS, 2015). Let’s hope so, as India the world’s largest democracy, has disappointed before and there’s still plenty of debt and cronyism in its large institutions.
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Better to Be an Investor or a Speculator in Volatile Markets and Now with Marching Migrants?

During the spring of 2015 major equity market indices such as the S&P500 and the FTSE100 made record highs and most equity investors had a reasonable start to the year. However over the course of the summer, especially since August, these same indices along with share valuations have tumbled sharply. Widely discussed by politicians, economists and pundits is how it will effect or portray the true state of the economy now and in the coming months.
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2015: Double, Double Toil and Trouble; Fire Burn and Cauldron Bubble…..a Witches Brew? (Macbeth*)

The year continues where it left off with a plunging oil price causing all sorts of economic tensions for oil producers and benefits for oil importers (although materialising more gradually). Terrorist attacks in Paris connected to the Islamic State conflict in Syria and Iraq caused shock and revulsion around the World.

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