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News and views: Hope springs eternal view for 2012 or is there trouble ahead?

“The central case outlook is for global equity markets to trade sideways with a moderate upward bias but, importantly, with limited downside risk. A more durable rally in global markets … later in 2012 dependent on certain catalysts… change in policy by Iran (easing oil price pressures, consensus agreement on Greek debt restructuring,… funds from the IMF, the issuance of eurozone bonds, implying a change of policy by  Germany towards eurozone transfer payments, a weaker Euro boosting eurozone growth, …pro-growth policies in Europe,… monetary easing in emerging economies and… fiscal plans being developed in the US and Japan… could trigger a rally similar to the market movements from 2003-07” writes Robert Parker, Insight column FT, 19/1/2012.

Well here’s hoping… and it’s a big hope. Happy to discuss as the comment below has got me thinking what to do with some of my more defensive holdings.

As someone who I follow I noted that Merryn Somerset Webb, the Editor-in-Chief of Moneyweek, in her column in the week-end FT 11/12th February 2012 money section, p5 commented that defensive stocks have already had a good return require careful monitoring to ensure that they haven’t become overbought as they has become the consensus trade with many investments managers.

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