The unfinished symphony – the dance of death
In May I wrote about some of the problems currently threatening the world’s economy or peace using a Billy Joel song track as a background reference. However an addition to that should be the number of territorial disputes lurking around particularly in Asia usually involving China with India, Pakistan, most countries in SE. Asia with a claim over the South China Sea Spratly and Paracel Islands with their oil and gas fields and Japan.
World War 2 had its roots in territorial demands in central and East Europe along with ethnic dispersions and tensions. Japan also invaded China too. Therefore, recent large protests in a number of prominent Chinese cities over some Japanese right-wing flag bearing nationalists visiting islands in the East China Sea is, in my opinion, an issue that needs to be addressed before it escalates. The Japanese named Senkaku Islands or the Chinese named Diaoyu Islands is a cluster of submerged reefs in the northern East China Sea. Each country is unlikely to relinquish their claim because again oil and gas fields have been discovered there too. Both Japan and China have large economies and a shortage of raw materials including oil and gas. China has abundant Shale oil and gas deposits but less conventional deposits of oil.
International diplomacy over these disputes will have occurred and should continue. However, the scale and passionate expressions of nationhood and rights over these remote islands demonstrates that any resolution may be temporary and a proper fix or lasting solution will be required if any Japanese or Chinese explorers turn up with a drilling rig and not just flags. Whether it becomes joint or shared with mineral rights split accordingly will all be part of the negotiations I would venture. The concern is with weak economic growth or reputations to restore and national pride to redeem that is when small territorial disputes can blow up and turn very nasty indeed. Japan has had 20 years of economic drift and high government debt so some oil and gas revenues maybe very welcome to avoid any future financial crisis. China after an embarrassing murder trial of a UK businessman found guilty Gu Kailai, the wife of Bo Xilai a former CCP politician who was tipped to become a ruling politburo member, exposed some unsavoury inner workings of the political system in Chongqing. They may not want to show further weakness or failings to the watching world especially losing a territorial dispute with an old adversary like Japan.
Along with the ever present Taiwanese issue, the duel South China Sea islands claims, Tibet not mentioning the other Himalayan border disputes the precedent at stake here could be vitally important not just for the Chinese but other nations with similar claims and world peace.
A buy time for diplomats lies ahead. I wonder if Hilary Clinton will be talking to Henry Kissinger for any tips and what the consequences of that would be this time.
LDC
*Music lyrics by Billy Joel, We Didn’t Start The Fire (C) 1989 SONY BMG MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT
Kathrin Hille and Michiyo Nakamoto, Asia-Pacific, Financial Times 19th August 2012, Financial Times Ltd, London UK.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97805eaa-e9ee-11e1-929b-00144feab49a.html#axzz246Rqfavr
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