The Israeli concerns over Iranian nuclear capabilities and their threats of pre-emptive military action against Iranian facilities were highlighted in a recent speech given by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at the UN HQ in New York recently. Netanyahu’s speech was supported with his diagram of a bomb – in the style of an animated cartoon or children’s book illustration – which he proceeded to draw a red line on near the detonator. This red line was to depict Iranian activity crossing a “zone of immunity” or irreversibility in the programme towards having a nuclear weapon capability. Since this incident he has delayed the threat of an attack before the US Presidential elections in November to perhaps one in the summer of 2013. Former security commanders have expressed their opposition to an attack in well reported comments as ‘highly inadvisable’ to say the least. Meir Dagan, former head of the Mossad Spy Agency went as far as saying that an Israeli attack on Iran was “the stupidest idea” he had ever heard of. Even Yuval Diskin, former director of Israel’s internal security service called the current Israeli PM and Defence Minister Ehud Barak “messianic politicians who could not be trusted”. * (I have provided a link to the ft.com website for subscribers to read more on the numerous articles by Tobias Buck) With a country like Iran, which has pledged to wipe Israel of the face of the earth, their concern is understandable but their rhetoric is alarming. Particularly as real escalation to this situation would no doubt involve US support and all that may bring.
This political game therefore remains highly fraught and dangerous as the Iranians themselves appear no better at reducing these regional tensions. Recently this has been almost comically represented – in a way that is in keeping with many film or TV political satire shows – by the third International Conference and Festival of Islamic Resistance in Isfahan, Iran. This ‘festival’ is a gathering in late August/September of representatives from Lebanon’s Hizbollah and Amal Movement, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad and also guest appearances from, for example, Sheikh Ali Jaber of Hizbollah – a message from its leader Hassan Nasrallah giving support of actions for freeing Palestine, removing Israel’s occupation of Arab lands and also warning against further plans by Israel and the west against these wishes**. Completely incendiary stuff and I imagine there were plenty of “death to America” shouts from delegates at some point during the proceedings too.
Therefore there is a strong need for a cool head from somebody in these negotiations, or perhaps a balancing act to prevent a hothead from ever being allowed to carry out another armed intervention – especially with nuclear weapons. Many have tried over the years following the 1st Arab-Israeli war in 1948 and I believe that the diplomats must continue this grinding task on both sides with equal firmness.
The issue also includes Tehran continuing its regional influence through Syria and the besieged President Bashar al-Assad’s Allawite dominated Shia regime and its links to Hizbollah in Lebanon. The Iranians are concerned by the Syrian regime’s collapse, which is supported by the west in a further ploy to resist the Iranian plans for nuclear capabilities. The west also has an impact in terms of further regime change and weakening of allies such as Hizbollah in the Lebanon.
If Egypt can sort its political system calmly and rejuvenate its economy, and if Turkey plays its hand well with their own intervention in the civil conflict of the North of Syria, then Iran will have more than enough regional rivals to discuss loudly at the fourth Conference and Festival of Islamic Resistance (of the Shia variety) next year.
Brave world leaders and diplomats step forward please; you’ve got until the summer 2013 to think about it… for now at least.
LDC
References and quotations-
*Ex-Israeli security chief attacks Netanyahu over Iran, by Tobias Buck, 28th April 2012, ft.com, Financial Times Publications Ltd, London. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d06b0900-9141-11e1-a725-00144feab49a.html#axzz28wH8DKDZ (accessed by subscriber, 12th October 2012).
**Iran hosts Islamic resistance festival, by Najmeh Bozorgmehr, 6th September 2012, Financial Times, p10, Financial Times Publication Ltd, London.
Also available for subscribers at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43cadc38-f752-11e1-8e9e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz28wH8DKDZ (accessed by subscriber 12th October 2012).