The 70th year celebrations of the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation has been less an occasion of congratulations and more of niggling squabbles and backstabbing gossip. The meeting of members took place in the UK in Hertfordshire and Buckingham Palace, London. US President Trump complained about the Canadian Premier reneging on the 2% of GDP spending commitment on defence for NATO members, especially for developed nations.
This has been a point of contention for the US and Trump’s administration particularly that European nations especially rely too heavily on the US for their security commitments. Germany for example for example on spends 1.14% of GDP on defence with Canada only 1.17% with both criticised in recent years by the US for not raising their defence spending compared to their growth in GDP.
The UK, with its 2 new aircraft carriers, spends 1.6% of GDP on defence and is ranked 8th in the world on military capability based on purchasing power parity with the US, Russia and China filling the top three places of military capability (GlobalFirePower.com, 2019). The US spends an impressive $716 billion (3.6% of GDP) and is the greatest military superpower by some distance even with China closing the gap in recent years.
Many countries in the top twenty of military powers do not have any aircraft carriers such as Turkey although it has 3,200 tanks. Some of these are being used in its incursion in northern Syria adding to the discord in NATO.
The US does have a point in regards European countries relying far too long on US security provision. European NATO allies should bulk-up their military expenditure and presence in places like the Baltic countries to dissuade Russian temptation for regaining former territories. More territory and discontented provinces are something Russia doesn’t need more of much better to diversify its economy away from fossil fuels.
However, the US withdrawal in October 2019 of its 1000 strong peace-keeping troops and visible support for the Kurds who it worked with and supported to defeat Islamic State terrorists is a regretful mistake of foreign policy. In doing so to return a relatively small number of US troops home it has allowed IS terrorists to escape the internment camps. Turkey has made an offensive or invasion, take your pick, of northern Syria to enforce it claims a buffer zone against terrorist insurgency.
It has fought against the Kurdish YPG who it views as a terrorist group aligned with their PKK Turkish brethren. This has with great angst and consternation forced the Kurds to seek help against this Turkish offensive from the Assad’s regime supported by Iran and Russia, whom they were recently fighting against once IS had been reduced.
The Kurds see it as a betrayal and little wonder- a lot of blood and treasure spilt for what? It’s good news and progress for the Assad regime, Russian, Iran and their Hezbollah freedom-fighters/terrorists- again take your pick in this grinding misery of a conflict.
It’s neither good for US status as a reliability partner and defender of freedoms in the region and world at large. Nor for Trump if he wants a foreign policy legacy- one assumes he doesn’t.
For NATO it has made its 70th birthday celebration more awkward and less useful. In holding a short-3 hours meeting- illustrates for the troubles ahead for this septuagenarian guarantor of peace.
In asking for a commitment to increase spending from its NATO allies. The US should ask from its politicians a degree of resolve in its foreign policy and military interventions that it can maintain without being restrained by its domestic agenda and desire for short term commitment- the old world doesn’t work like that.
As for the Kurds’ abandonment in the words of Randy Vanwarmer in his 1979 hit the words may have a bitter sound in their current predicament from a quickly departed ally.
For investors it another uncertainty to contemplate in an uncertain political climate.
LDC.
References, reading and listening:
Global Fire Power.com, 2019, “2019 Military Strength Ranking,” [online], Available at:https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=germany (website accessed 4th December 2019)
CNN Politics, 2019, “NATO Summit 2019:Disputes Overshadow Anniversary Meeting,” by Laura Said-Moorhouse, Turner Broadcasting System Inc, [online] Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/nato-summit-2019-day-two-gbr-intl/index.html (website accessed 4th December 2019)
YouTube, 2019, “You left me Just When I Needed You Most,” 1979 Randy van Warmer, Warner Music Group, [Online] Available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBOQgL731Ac (website accessed 4th December 2019)