The comment is attributed to C.19th French political writer Alexis de Tocqueville with my additional quip to his observation in light of the 2015 election debate. Our politicians represent our current political wants, wishes and prejudices in a system of our choosing. The democratic system, in the UK at least, was hard fought for and took centuries to achieve.
With this in mind, I don’t support comedian Russell Brand’s campaign of don’t vote as it just encourages them (to be inept or self-serving or whatever) as it excuses the electorate from its own responsibilities. Whether out of self-interest or the pursuit of justice and happiness for all, people have a social and economic interest in the affairs of the State. The obligations of which have created philosophical debate of great length and variety. More recently, Russel Brand is now encouraging people to vote Labour after a late volt-face.
Once more the General election has been presented as the most crucial ever, even more than 2010, which was given a similar high-stakes billing.
The Conservative/Liberal coalition made some progress on reducing unemployment and returning to economic growth after the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and its ensuing recession. Still, the debate on austerity cuts in government spending looks set to continue in the next parliament.
The UK current account deficit remains large and government debt levels remain an issue, these twin problems highlighted by the ONS and the IMF, and are a concern for international investors. Productivity levels are another factor where the UK economy lags its economic competitors.
The spending plans of the new government will continue to require the co-operation of international investors buying UK sovereign debt offerings. UK institutions alone won’t suffice.
However, The UK has one of the largest economies in the world, its much lamented defence spending remains considerable at approximately £40 billion ($60 billion). The NHS still functions and people from all over the world want to live and work here especially in London. Hence an increasingly fractious argument on immigration providing a platform for parties like UKIP to gain in popularity.
The politicians’ arguments over the standard of living and economic achievements of the last 5 years and next 5 sway from predictable lament to optimistic cheer from whomever you wish to believe. Is it that bad or was it really that good?
Life for most was bearable in 2010 and in 2015 life for most in the UK remains pleasant and agreeable. How about living in Syria or eastern Ukraine to name 2 other countries which in the last few years have seen war and carnage?
Another question is do MPs (and the others) retain real political power? This is an issue that UKIP questions over the European Commission’s interference with domestic political agendas.
Arguably, the EC, along with the IMF and the WTO less so the UN, through various treaties or directives regulates and obligates UK governing institutions to pass and enforce encompassing legislation.
The Conservatives have pledged an EU membership referendum in 2017, a resultant yes vote to leave the EU, our largest trading partners, worries international investors and is a reason for UK stock market underperformance relative to the US in 2015. It also is a factor for any sterling weakness in the volatile currency markets too.
In response to supranational policy implementation, and to alleviate structural deficits, I suggest MPs can and should legislate for increasing the supply of housing stock by simplifying planning legislation, encourage local partnerships between councils and developers using green belt sites where people want to live. Britain would still be a green and pleasant land.
Here’s hoping future government adopt Nordic healthcare models for further co-operation and shared responsibilities for managing an ageing population with private-sector involvement.
They should provide deficit sensitive government support for pension and life assurance funds, with long term investment horizons, to invest in critical infrastructure projects. With all the legal, accountancy and project finance professionals available in the UK infrastructure projects should be further advanced than at present especially in view of interest rates.
The result of 2015 UK General Election has been widely tipped as a hung parliament. The negotiations for another coalition also tipped as ugly to say the least.
The outcome is likely to be a minority Conservative government with Labour in opposition with a powerful Scottish Nationalist block in Westminister able to block or support legislation suiting its own agenda. However, the Liberals, UKIP or the Ulster Unionists should bolster a Conservative led government forming an alliance or another coalition, it’s probably the most the Liberals can hope for and a huge step for UKIP.
Alternatively, Labour wins and governs with a minority with a fractious SNP alliance driving its own agenda. The 1923 Labour minority government of Ramsay MacDonald lasted only months before it collapsed- will it happen again?
A collapse of the Labour vote in Scotland in favour of the SNP could be a catalyst for further change or calamity in the years ahead. This possibility coupled with a proposed EU referendum makes the once stable and reliable UK look a lot more European, dare say Italian, in its political landscape.
While this does concern investors however it is what the electorate wants and that is the democracy we deserve.
LDC