The UK has a caretaker Prime Minister from Friday 7th June until a replacement leader is chosen by the Conservative Party later in the Summer.
How long can the new incumbent last in attempting to push a Brexit decision through parliament remains to be seen. A vote of no-confidence is a strong possibility if support for the government wains over the Brexit impasse and most likely followed soon after by a general election.
To avoid a Labour government or Lab-LibDem-SNP coalition and to put an end to the Brexit debacle depends on who the Conservatives choose. Who will support them in forming a government?
The DUP made it very clear over its opposition on the Border back-stop deal in Northern Ireland. Finding partners may prove a challenge to avoid operating as a minority government with the near impossible task of Brexit.
Boris Johnston is favourite to win although a slew of cabinet minsters from Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt to Rory Stewart the International Development Secretary are in the running. A Johnston led government may give rise to UK wide tension over an English nationalist agenda over issues like immigration and employment.
Boris as Prime Minister would need to apply all his charm and efforts in persuading a politically polarising UK to accepting his vision for Brexit. More realistically whatever may remain of his vison by the leaving date by 31st October after more parliamentary shenanigans once in office as PM.
Can he do it or could anyone else from the Conservatives really do it?
Further constitutional ramifications may lie ahead with Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon proposing another Scottish referendum since the last only in 2014. In a bid to satisfy her own SNP supporters and keen to take advantage of the chaotic situation in Westminster.
Certainly, she can play on the surge of English nationalism from the spill-out from the Brexit debate fuelling disdain over British identity and unity over immigration and its place in the world.
The UK government can refuse to agree to another referendum and add more ire on a deteriorating relationship which once again would end of the world’s oldest political union. Nicola would need to be very sure that the million plus Brexiteers and cross-party pro-union supporters would not thwart SNP ambitions for a successful second referendum. Is she even with Brexit?
The new PM could also let Brexit just fizzle out with further delay and parliamentary impasse before rescinding the article 50 withdrawal letter from the EU. It would be a brave stance indeed and one that may cause civil unrest and mayhem at the next election for the Conservatives. But it may save the union and result in another UK coalition government however the Conservatives could still form part of the coalition instead of being destroyed.
The Halloween date of 31st October for Brexit is well chosen for the devil’s brew that the Brexit decision has become for current parliamentarians. The saying that you get the politicians you deserve is borne out in the UK voting patterns of the recent European parliamentary elections results revealed 70% of the vote split between the pro or anti -Brexit parties with 30% somewhere between the two polarised views.
The new Prime Minister with a determined remain or leave vision has the chance to make history one-way or the other if brave enough and with a little help from some friends- anyone?
It’s a burden but someone has to shoulder it and make their reputation.
LDC.